Trend analysis of precipitation under climate change scenario
Abstract
The climate change is a natural phenomenon. But it has been hastened by anthropogenic activities. As an obvious consequence, extreme weather events like cyclones, heavy rainfall, and floods have increased. On the contrary, desertification also taking place in other parts of the country. So, disaster management and water management are essential for each part of the country even in the areas not affected still now.
This paper analyses the June-July-Aug-Sep (JJAS) rainfall pattern over 117 years (1901-2017) for six meteorological subdivisions in East & North-East India. A rainfall trend with polynomial curve fitting has been shown for individual regions. The descriptive analysis was also done to compare the overall rainfall and variations over the periods.
References
2.Barde, V., Sinha, P., Mohanty, U. C., Zhang, X., & Niyogi, D. (2021b). Counter-clockwise epochal shift of the Indian Monsoon Sparse Zone. Atmospheric Research, 263, 105806. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105806
3.Gadgil, S., Francis, P. A., & Vinayachandran, P. N. (2019). Summer monsoon of 2019. Current Science, 117(5), 783-793.
4.Goswami, B. N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, M. S., & Xavier, P. K. (2006). Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science, 314(5804), 1442-1445.
5.Guhathakurta, P., Rajeevan, M., Sikka, D. R., & Tyagi, A. (2015). Observed changes in southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 1901–2011. International Journal of Climatology, 35(8), 1881-1898.
6.Kulkarni, A. (2012). Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in warming environment. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109, 447-459.
7.Ministry of Finance, Government of India (2018) Climate change and Agriculture in Economic Survey 2017-2018, chapter 6, 82–101. Government of India. URL http://mofapp.nic.in:8080/economicsurvey/pdf/082-101 Chapter 06 ENGLISH Vol 01 2017-18.pdf.
8.Open Government Data (OGD) Platform India (https://data.gov.in/)
9.Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J., & Jaswal, A. K. (2008). Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophysical research letters, 35(18).
10.Reuter, M., Kern, A. K., Harzhauser, M., Kroh, A., & Piller, W. E. (2013). Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall—lessons from the Mid-Miocene. Gondwana Research, 23(3), 1172-1177. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2012.07.015
11.Wang, B., Ding, Y., & Sikka, D. R. (2006). Synoptic systems and weather. The asian monsoon, 131-201.
